GREY SYSTEM THEORY AND AN APPLICATION IN ENERGY CONSUMPTION MODELLING
Project no. 21749 · Status: Kapanmış · 2020
Summary
In this thesis, the model created by adding the constant term to the grey Verhulst model called GVMCT has been studied. The grey estimation equation has been obtained by solving the differential equation of the model. In order to evaluate the performance of the obtained estimation equation, an application study has been carried out in the field of energy. Data sets related to Total Energy Consumed by the Residential Sector (TERS), Total Energy Consumed by the Commercial Sector (TECS) and Total Energy Consumed by the Industrial Sector (TEIS) variables have been examined. Due to the convenience of the data set, various estimation equations have been created for the related variables using both time series analysis and grey modeling (GM (1,1) model, Grey Verhulst Model and GVMCT model). The performance of the estimation equations obtained has been compared according to MSE, MAE and RMSE performance measures. Forecasts have been made for two periods using the obtained estimation equations and compared with the actual values.