Modeling Patient Arrival Process in Emergency Department of Ege University Medical Faculty Hospital
Project no. 455 · Status: Kapanmış · 2017
Summary
Demand forecasting in healthcare services has a significant impact on the planning of activities related to the delivery of health services to patients. Since the appropriate planning of medical personnel and equipment depends directly on the forecast of the expected demand for healthcare services in future, more effective planning will be possible with the use of advanced statistical techniques that take into account the random and time-varying nature of future demand. In this research project carried out for this purpose, the statistical analysis of the number of patients admitted to the Emergency Department of Ege University Medical Faculty Hospital between the dates 01.01.2018 and 31.12.2018 was performed and forecasting models were developed to predict the number of patients. In addition to these, in order to provide resources for simulation and optimization planning studies that can be performed in the next stage, time-specific distribution and parameter estimates were made according to patient types (red, yellow, green code). Created forecasting models can be used as a basic input for the modelling of patient flow and labor planning in the emergency department.