VERGİLERİN EKONOMİK ETKİSİ VE TÜRKİYE’DE VERGİ REFORMLARI
Project no. 803 · Status: Kapanmış · 2015
Summary
Tax policies, in addition to their fiscal aims, can contribute to economic policy aims of the government such as increasing GDP, employment, saving, investment and regulating income distribution. In this context it is important to know the economic impacts of taxes in order to have an optimal tax system which achieves the fiscal and economic policy targets. To this aim in this study, macroeconomic impacts of taxes in terms of direct and indirect taxes are investigated both on theoretical and empirical basis. In parallel with the literature, macroeconomic impacts of government expenditures are also analyzed. In the study, macroeconomic effects of government expenditures, direct and indirect taxes are analyzed utilizing cointegration, vector error correction model and vector autoregression models employing quarterly Turkish data for the period of 1994Q1 – 2018Q3. According to results, (although statistically weak) evidence found implying that an increase in indirect taxes cause an increase GDP and household consumption which is in contrast with the literature. As expected, an increase in indirect taxes increases investment. While an increase in direct taxes boosts net exports, rising indirect taxes cause reduction in net exports. On the other hand, the results show that enhancement of government expenditures stimulates GDP, household consumption and investment in the Turkish economy for the sample period. Hence it can be said that these findings are in favor of Keynesian approach.