Robust Bayesian inference of carapace width–weight scaling in the invasive blue crab (Callinectes sapidus)

Makaleler > Tam Makale · 2026

Yazarlar: Tevfik CEYHAN, Cemre Balkı, Okan AKYOL, Ali ULAŞ, Irene Lopez-Mengual

JOURNAL OF THE MARINE BIOLOGICAL ASSOCIATION OF THE UNITED KINGDOM, SCI Expanded İndekslerine Giren Dergi, Uluslararası, 2026, cilt 106, ss 1-7

DOI: 10.1017/ S0025315426101581

Özet

<p>Te&nbsp;Mediterranean&nbsp;basin&nbsp;is&nbsp;a&nbsp;region&nbsp;where&nbsp;both&nbsp;natural&nbsp;and&nbsp;anthropogenic&nbsp;factors&nbsp;have&nbsp;contributed&nbsp;to&nbsp;the&nbsp;successful&nbsp;spread&nbsp;of&nbsp;invasive&nbsp;alien&nbsp;species.&nbsp;Te&nbsp;Atlantic&nbsp;blue&nbsp;crab&nbsp;(Callinectes&nbsp;sapidus),&nbsp;long&nbsp;established&nbsp;and&nbsp;commercially&nbsp;harvested&nbsp;along&nbsp;the&nbsp;Levantine&nbsp;coast&nbsp;of&nbsp;Türkiye,&nbsp;is&nbsp;now&nbsp;expanding&nbsp;northward&nbsp;along&nbsp;the&nbsp;Aegean&nbsp;coastline,&nbsp;where&nbsp;our&nbsp;study&nbsp;area&nbsp;is&nbsp;located.&nbsp;Strong&nbsp;relationships&nbsp;between&nbsp;morphometric&nbsp;data&nbsp;and&nbsp;biomass&nbsp;provide&nbsp;valuable&nbsp;information&nbsp;for&nbsp;mitigating&nbsp;the&nbsp;ecological&nbsp;and&nbsp;economic&nbsp;impacts&nbsp;of&nbsp;this&nbsp;species.&nbsp;In&nbsp;this&nbsp;study,&nbsp;conducted&nbsp;in&nbsp;Azmak&nbsp;Stream&nbsp;(İzmir,&nbsp;Türkiye)&nbsp;using&nbsp;standardized&nbsp;traps,&nbsp;the&nbsp;carapace&nbsp;widths&nbsp;(CWs)&nbsp;and&nbsp;total&nbsp;weights&nbsp;of&nbsp;197&nbsp;individuals&nbsp;were&nbsp;measured.&nbsp;Four&nbsp;competing&nbsp;Bayesian&nbsp;models&nbsp;were&nbsp;constructed,&nbsp;comparing&nbsp;Gaussian&nbsp;and&nbsp;Student’s&nbsp;t-error&nbsp;distributions&nbsp;with&nbsp;and&nbsp;without&nbsp;sex&nbsp;interaction,&nbsp;and&nbsp;evaluated&nbsp;using&nbsp;the&nbsp;Pareto-smoothed&nbsp;importance&nbsp;sampling&nbsp;leave-one-out&nbsp;cross-validation.&nbsp;Model&nbsp;M3&nbsp;(elpd_loo&nbsp;=&nbsp;101.11194),&nbsp;which&nbsp;incorporated&nbsp;a&nbsp;sex-factored&nbsp;Student’s&nbsp;t-distribution,&nbsp;outperformedtheGaussiancounterpart(M2;elpd_loo&nbsp;=97.34773).Furthermore,thedegreesof-freedom&nbsp;parameter&nbsp;(ν&nbsp;=&nbsp;8.0)&nbsp;indicated&nbsp;that&nbsp;biological&nbsp;variation&nbsp;was&nbsp;more&nbsp;appropriately&nbsp;modelled&nbsp;using&nbsp;a&nbsp;Student’s&nbsp;t-distribution.&nbsp;In&nbsp;M3,&nbsp;the&nbsp;scaling&nbsp;exponent&nbsp;for&nbsp;males&nbsp;(bM)&nbsp;was&nbsp;2.70&nbsp;(95%&nbsp;credible&nbsp;interval&nbsp;[CrI]:&nbsp;2.40–3.00),&nbsp;while&nbsp;the&nbsp;female–male&nbsp;exponent&nbsp;difference&nbsp;was&nbsp;-0.52&nbsp;(95%&nbsp;CrI:&nbsp;-0.87&nbsp;to&nbsp;-0.17),&nbsp;corresponding&nbsp;to&nbsp;a&nbsp;female&nbsp;exponent&nbsp;of&nbsp;bF&nbsp;≈&nbsp;2.18.&nbsp;Although&nbsp;both&nbsp;sexes&nbsp;exhibited&nbsp;negative&nbsp;allometric&nbsp;growth&nbsp;(b&nbsp;&lt;&nbsp;3),&nbsp;growth&nbsp;strategies&nbsp;clearly&nbsp;differed&nbsp;between&nbsp;the&nbsp;sexes.&nbsp;Tese&nbsp;fndings&nbsp;demonstrate&nbsp;that&nbsp;uniform&nbsp;models&nbsp;may&nbsp;mislead&nbsp;blue&nbsp;crab&nbsp;stock&nbsp;assessments&nbsp;and&nbsp;highlight&nbsp;the&nbsp;importance&nbsp;of&nbsp;using&nbsp;sex-specifc&nbsp;parameters&nbsp;in&nbsp;management&nbsp;strategies.&nbsp;</p>

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