Influence of teleconnection patterns on daily extreme precipitation in Turkey

Makaleler > Tam Makale · 2026

Yazarlar: Hakan Güler, Ecmel ERLAT

THEORETICAL AND APPLIED CLIMATOLOGY, SCI İndekslerine Giren Dergi, Uluslararası, 2026, cilt 157, ss 1-20

DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-026-06056-7

Özet

<p>This&nbsp;study&nbsp;investigates&nbsp;the&nbsp;relationship&nbsp;between&nbsp;teleconnection&nbsp;patterns&nbsp;and&nbsp;the&nbsp;frequency&nbsp;and&nbsp;intensity&nbsp;of&nbsp;daily&nbsp;extreme</p><p>precipitation&nbsp;across&nbsp;Turkey.&nbsp;Using&nbsp;the&nbsp;high-resolution&nbsp;ERA5-Land&nbsp;daily&nbsp;precipitation&nbsp;dataset&nbsp;for&nbsp;the&nbsp;period&nbsp;1950–2023,</p><p>indices&nbsp;for&nbsp;extreme&nbsp;precipitation&nbsp;frequency&nbsp;(R95N,&nbsp;R99N)&nbsp;and&nbsp;precipitation&nbsp;total&nbsp;from&nbsp;these&nbsp;events&nbsp;(R95AM,&nbsp;R99AM)</p><p>were&nbsp;calculated.&nbsp;A&nbsp;Pearson&nbsp;correlation&nbsp;and&nbsp;Empirical&nbsp;Orthogonal&nbsp;Function&nbsp;(EOF)&nbsp;analysis&nbsp;was&nbsp;then&nbsp;performed&nbsp;between</p><p>these&nbsp;indices&nbsp;and&nbsp;the&nbsp;prominent&nbsp;teleconnection&nbsp;patterns&nbsp;North&nbsp;Atlantic&nbsp;Oscillation&nbsp;(NAO),&nbsp;Arctic&nbsp;Oscillation&nbsp;(AO),&nbsp;North</p><p>Sea-Caspian&nbsp;Pattern&nbsp;(NCP),&nbsp;and&nbsp;Eastern&nbsp;Atlantic&nbsp;Pattern&nbsp;(EA)&nbsp;on&nbsp;annual&nbsp;and&nbsp;seasonal&nbsp;timescales.&nbsp;The&nbsp;results&nbsp;indicate&nbsp;that</p><p>the&nbsp;NAO&nbsp;is&nbsp;the&nbsp;dominant&nbsp;influence,&nbsp;explaining&nbsp;more&nbsp;than&nbsp;30%&nbsp;of&nbsp;the&nbsp;variance&nbsp;in&nbsp;the&nbsp;annual&nbsp;frequency&nbsp;of&nbsp;daily&nbsp;extreme</p><p>precipitation,&nbsp;with&nbsp;statistically&nbsp;significant&nbsp;correlations&nbsp;covering&nbsp;33%&nbsp;(16%)&nbsp;of&nbsp;Turkey&nbsp;for&nbsp;R95N&nbsp;(R99N).&nbsp;A&nbsp;negative</p><p>NAO&nbsp;phase&nbsp;correlates&nbsp;significantly&nbsp;with&nbsp;an&nbsp;increased&nbsp;frequency&nbsp;and&nbsp;amount&nbsp;of&nbsp;extreme&nbsp;precipitation&nbsp;events,&nbsp;particularly</p><p>in&nbsp;western&nbsp;Turkey&nbsp;during&nbsp;(17%&nbsp;of&nbsp;area&nbsp;for&nbsp;R95N)&nbsp;and&nbsp;autumn&nbsp;(15%&nbsp;for&nbsp;R95N).&nbsp;The&nbsp;AO&nbsp;is&nbsp;the&nbsp;second&nbsp;most&nbsp;influential</p><p>pattern,&nbsp;showing&nbsp;significant&nbsp;correlations&nbsp;in&nbsp;both&nbsp;winter&nbsp;(~&nbsp;17%&nbsp;of&nbsp;area&nbsp;for&nbsp;R95N/R95AM)&nbsp;and&nbsp;summer&nbsp;(~&nbsp;20–24%&nbsp;for</p><p>all&nbsp;indices,&nbsp;especially&nbsp;in&nbsp;Central&nbsp;Anatolia).&nbsp;In&nbsp;contrast,&nbsp;the&nbsp;impacts&nbsp;of&nbsp;the&nbsp;NCP&nbsp;and&nbsp;EA&nbsp;are&nbsp;weaker&nbsp;and&nbsp;more&nbsp;seasonally</p><p>constrained,&nbsp;with&nbsp;NCP&nbsp;showing&nbsp;maximum&nbsp;influence&nbsp;in&nbsp;summer&nbsp;(17%&nbsp;for&nbsp;R95N)&nbsp;and&nbsp;EA&nbsp;primarily&nbsp;affecting&nbsp;spring</p><p>precipitation&nbsp;(16–20%&nbsp;for&nbsp;R95N/R95AM).&nbsp;The&nbsp;influence&nbsp;of&nbsp;all&nbsp;teleconnections&nbsp;is&nbsp;strongest&nbsp;in&nbsp;winter&nbsp;and&nbsp;exhibits&nbsp;clear</p><p>regional&nbsp;differentiation,&nbsp;wherein&nbsp;western,&nbsp;Mediterranean-influenced&nbsp;regions&nbsp;are&nbsp;most&nbsp;sensitive.&nbsp;These&nbsp;findings&nbsp;confirm&nbsp;that</p><p>atmospheric&nbsp;teleconnections&nbsp;are&nbsp;a&nbsp;fundamental&nbsp;control&nbsp;on&nbsp;the&nbsp;occurrence&nbsp;of&nbsp;daily&nbsp;precipitation&nbsp;extremes&nbsp;in&nbsp;Turkey.&nbsp;Using</p><p>a&nbsp;comprehensive&nbsp;spatial&nbsp;dataset&nbsp;(8055&nbsp;grid&nbsp;cells&nbsp;at&nbsp;0.1°&nbsp;resolution)&nbsp;and&nbsp;combining&nbsp;correlation&nbsp;analysis&nbsp;with&nbsp;EOF&nbsp;decomposition,</p><p>this&nbsp;study&nbsp;provides&nbsp;the&nbsp;first&nbsp;systematic&nbsp;assessment&nbsp;of&nbsp;how&nbsp;four&nbsp;major&nbsp;teleconnection&nbsp;patterns&nbsp;simultaneously</p><p>influence&nbsp;daily&nbsp;extreme&nbsp;precipitation&nbsp;indices&nbsp;across&nbsp;Turkey.&nbsp;These&nbsp;findings&nbsp;provide&nbsp;valuable&nbsp;information&nbsp;for&nbsp;determining</p><p>risk&nbsp;management&nbsp;strategies,&nbsp;improving&nbsp;preparedness&nbsp;for&nbsp;disasters&nbsp;caused&nbsp;by&nbsp;extreme&nbsp;precipitation,&nbsp;and&nbsp;developing&nbsp;climate</p><p>change&nbsp;adaptation&nbsp;strategies,&nbsp;especially&nbsp;in&nbsp;the&nbsp;regions&nbsp;most&nbsp;vulnerable&nbsp;to&nbsp;daily&nbsp;extreme&nbsp;precipitation&nbsp;events&nbsp;in&nbsp;Turkey.</p>

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