Determinants of Currency Crises in Emerging Markets: The Case of Turkey
Makaleler > Tam Makale · 2008
Yazarlar: Oezge Cesmeci, Asiye Özlem ÖNDER
Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, SCI Expanded İndekslerine Giren Dergi, Uluslararası, Wos, 2008, cilt 44, ss 54-67
DOI: 10.2753/ree1540-496x440504
Özet
This paper investigates possible determinants of currency crises in Turkey. We use three different techniques—namely, the signaling approach, structural model, and Markov switching model with monthly data for the period 1992-2004. The results show that money market pressure index, real-sector confidence index, and public-sector variables are significant in explaining currency crises. Hence, one can say that banking crises lead to currency crises. Central banks' real-sector confidence index may be a good leading indicator for currency crises.