SARS-CoV-2 vaccination modelling for safe surgery to save lives: data from an international prospective cohort study.
Makaleler > Tam Makale · 2021
Yazarlar: Dmitri Nepogodiev, Joana F F Simoes, Elizabeth Li, James Glasbey, Maria Picciochi, Sivesh K Kamarajah, Rohan Gujjuri, Aneel Bhangu, Maryam A, Mohammed A Azab, DrAtif A Janjua, Mohammed A Zahran, Areej A Abdelaziz, Junaid Aamir, Norhafiza Ab Rahman, Islah Munjih Ab Rashid, Muna Aba Zaid, Muath Abaalkhail, Adnan Ababneh, Hazim Ababneh, Laila Ababneh, Roba Ababneh, Rafael Abad Alonso, Alfredo Abad Gurumeta, Ane Abad-Motos, Mussab Abaker, Ryan Rainiel Abary, Adam Abass, Emmanuele Abate, Sheraz Abayazeed Ahmed, Olukayode Abayomi, Alaa Abazeed, Bader Abbad, Francesco Abbadessa, Osaid Abbadi, Malaz Abbakar, Ahmed M Abbas, Alzhraa Salah Abbas, Asad Abbas, Aya M Abbas, Ferial Mohamed Ali Abbas, Jihad Abbas, Manzar Abbas, Mohammad Monir Abbas, Omer Abbas, Aykhan Abbasov, Olivier Abbo, Daniel Abbott, Tom Abbott, Omar Sudig Abboud, Waleed Abd, Tayma Abd Alghafour, Mohd Fahmi Abd Aziz, Nor Azimah Abd Aziz, Wael Abd El-Ghani, Hossam Aldein S Abd Elazeem, Reda Abd ElGhany, Mustafa Abd Elsayed, Ahmed Abd Elwahab, Sami Abd Elwahab, Ahmed Yassien Abd-Elkariem, Sherief Abd-Elsalam, Joel Abdala Junior, Ahmad Abdalah, Alya Abdalhadi, Ahmed Abdalla, Eman Adam Abdalla, Samir Abdalla, Shimaa Abdalla, Siddig Abdalla, Emne Abdallah, Ghaida Abdallah, Lubna Abdallah, Mohamed Hassan Fathy Hassan Abdallah, Munir Abdallah, Rasha Abdallah, Hani Abdalnour, Bashar Abdeen, Saedah Abdeewi, Louai Abdeh, Shrouk Abdel Fattah, Ali H Abdel Sater, Mahmoud Abdel-Aleem, Wafaa Abdel-Elsalam, Areej Abdel-Fattah, Nour Abdel-Fattah, Ibrahim Abdel-Hafez, Abdelrahman Abdelaal, Khaled Abdelazeem, Mohammed Abdelaziz, Mohamad Abdelbagi, Abouelnour Abdelbaset, Hesham Abdeldayem, Mahmoud Abdelfattah, Alwaleed Abdelgadir, Khaled Abdelgalel, Moslem Abdelghafar, Mohammed Abdelhafez, Mahmoud Hossameldin Saad Abdelhamid, Abdelkarim Abdeljalil, Candan ÇİÇEK, Emre DİVARCI, Hilmican ULMAN
The British journal of surgery, SCI Expanded İndekslerine Giren Dergi, Uluslararası, 2021, cilt 108, ss 1056-1063
DOI: 10.1093/bjs/znab101
Özet
<p style="font-size: 16px; box-sizing: inherit; line-height: 1.5; margin-top: 1.2rem; margin-bottom: 1.2rem; caret-color: rgb(33, 33, 33); color: rgb(33, 33, 33); font-family: BlinkMacSystemFont, -apple-system, "Segoe UI", Roboto, Oxygen, Ubuntu, Cantarell, "Fira Sans", "Droid Sans", "Helvetica Neue", sans-serif;"><strong class="sub-title" style="box-sizing: inherit;">Background: </strong>Preoperative SARS-CoV-2 vaccination could support safer elective surgery. Vaccine numbers are limited so this study aimed to inform their prioritization by modelling.</p><p style="font-size: 16px; box-sizing: inherit; line-height: 1.5; margin-top: 1.2rem; margin-bottom: 1.2rem; caret-color: rgb(33, 33, 33); color: rgb(33, 33, 33); font-family: BlinkMacSystemFont, -apple-system, "Segoe UI", Roboto, Oxygen, Ubuntu, Cantarell, "Fira Sans", "Droid Sans", "Helvetica Neue", sans-serif;"><strong class="sub-title" style="box-sizing: inherit;">Methods: </strong>The primary outcome was the number needed to vaccinate (NNV) to prevent one COVID-19-related death in 1 year. NNVs were based on postoperative SARS-CoV-2 rates and mortality in an international cohort study (surgical patients), and community SARS-CoV-2 incidence and case fatality data (general population). NNV estimates were stratified by age (18-49, 50-69, 70 or more years) and type of surgery. Best- and worst-case scenarios were used to describe uncertainty.</p><p style="font-size: 16px; box-sizing: inherit; line-height: 1.5; margin-top: 1.2rem; margin-bottom: 1.2rem; caret-color: rgb(33, 33, 33); color: rgb(33, 33, 33); font-family: BlinkMacSystemFont, -apple-system, "Segoe UI", Roboto, Oxygen, Ubuntu, Cantarell, "Fira Sans", "Droid Sans", "Helvetica Neue", sans-serif;"><strong class="sub-title" style="box-sizing: inherit;">Results: </strong>NNVs were more favourable in surgical patients than the general population. The most favourable NNVs were in patients aged 70 years or more needing cancer surgery (351; best case 196, worst case 816) or non-cancer surgery (733; best case 407, worst case 1664). Both exceeded the NNV in the general population (1840; best case 1196, worst case 3066). NNVs for surgical patients remained favourable at a range of SARS-CoV-2 incidence rates in sensitivity analysis modelling. Globally, prioritizing preoperative vaccination of patients needing elective surgery ahead of the general population could prevent an additional 58 687 (best case 115 007, worst case 20 177) COVID-19-related deaths in 1 year.</p><p style="font-size: 16px; box-sizing: inherit; line-height: 1.5; margin-top: 1.2rem; margin-bottom: 1.2rem; caret-color: rgb(33, 33, 33); color: rgb(33, 33, 33); font-family: BlinkMacSystemFont, -apple-system, "Segoe UI", Roboto, Oxygen, Ubuntu, Cantarell, "Fira Sans", "Droid Sans", "Helvetica Neue", sans-serif;"><strong class="sub-title" style="box-sizing: inherit;">Conclusion: </strong>As global roll out of SARS-CoV-2 vaccination proceeds, patients needing elective surgery should be prioritized ahead of the general population.</p>