Computation of loss of load probability using a Markov Chain with two-day memory
Articles > Article · 2012
Authors: A. H. ERGONUL, Gökalp KAHRAMAN
ENERGY EDUCATION SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY PART A-ENERGY SCIENCE AND RESEARCH, Journal Indexed in SCI Expanded, International, 2012, vol 29, pp 1115-1124
Summary
A Markov chain with two-day memory (W[n]) is described to model the battery energy level of a stand alone photovoltaic system (SAPV) as well as the sequence of change in the battery level within the previous two days. In this way, the one-and two-consecutive day correlations in the insolation data are incorporated in the model. The state transition and the stationary state occupation probabilities of W[n] are found from the insolation data. The loss of load probability (LOLP) of a SAPV at a given daily load is computed as a function of the battery capacity.