Assessing Climate Change Impacts on Second-Crop Soybean Yield and Irrigation Requirements Using AquaCrop in a Mediterranean Climate

Makaleler > Tam Makale · 2026

Yazarlar: Suayip Yuzbasi, Erhan AKKUZU

INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF PLANT PRODUCTION, SCI Expanded İndekslerine Giren Dergi, Uluslararası, Wos, 2026, cilt 20, ss 48-48

DOI: https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s42106-026-00432-z

Özet

<p><span style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); color: rgb(34, 34, 34);">This&nbsp;study&nbsp;assesses&nbsp;the&nbsp;response&nbsp;of&nbsp;second-crop&nbsp;soybean&nbsp;to&nbsp;future&nbsp;climate&nbsp;change&nbsp;by&nbsp;modeling&nbsp;yield&nbsp;and&nbsp;water-related&nbsp;indicators&nbsp;under&nbsp;three&nbsp;irrigation&nbsp;methods—drip,&nbsp;subsurface&nbsp;drip,&nbsp;and&nbsp;furrow—considering&nbsp;limited&nbsp;water&nbsp;availability.&nbsp;Field&nbsp;experiments&nbsp;were&nbsp;conducted&nbsp;at&nbsp;the&nbsp;International&nbsp;Agricultural&nbsp;Research&nbsp;and&nbsp;Training&nbsp;Center&nbsp;in&nbsp;western&nbsp;Türkiye&nbsp;during&nbsp;2018&nbsp;and&nbsp;2019.&nbsp;The&nbsp;2018&nbsp;dataset&nbsp;was&nbsp;used&nbsp;for&nbsp;AquaCrop&nbsp;model&nbsp;calibration&nbsp;and&nbsp;the&nbsp;2019&nbsp;dataset&nbsp;for&nbsp;validation.&nbsp;The&nbsp;FAO&nbsp;AquaCrop&nbsp;model&nbsp;demonstrated&nbsp;strong&nbsp;performance&nbsp;(calibration:&nbsp;R²&nbsp;=&nbsp;0.89,&nbsp;RMSE&nbsp;=&nbsp;124.9&nbsp;kg&nbsp;ha⁻¹,&nbsp;NRMSE&nbsp;=&nbsp;3.65%,&nbsp;EF&nbsp;=&nbsp;0.79,&nbsp;d&nbsp;=&nbsp;0.94;&nbsp;validation:&nbsp;R²&nbsp;=&nbsp;0.93,&nbsp;RMSE&nbsp;=&nbsp;86.6&nbsp;kg&nbsp;ha⁻¹,&nbsp;NRMSE&nbsp;=&nbsp;2.42%,&nbsp;EF&nbsp;=&nbsp;0.87,&nbsp;d&nbsp;=&nbsp;0.97).&nbsp;Future&nbsp;projections&nbsp;for&nbsp;mid-century&nbsp;(2041–2060)&nbsp;and&nbsp;late-century&nbsp;(2061–2080)&nbsp;were&nbsp;based&nbsp;on&nbsp;climate&nbsp;inputs&nbsp;from&nbsp;HADGEM2-ES,&nbsp;MPI-ESM-MR,&nbsp;and&nbsp;GFDL-ESM2M&nbsp;global&nbsp;circulation&nbsp;models&nbsp;under&nbsp;RCP4.5&nbsp;and&nbsp;RCP8.5&nbsp;scenarios.&nbsp;Results&nbsp;indicate&nbsp;notable&nbsp;temperature&nbsp;increases&nbsp;and&nbsp;variable&nbsp;precipitation&nbsp;trends&nbsp;across&nbsp;models&nbsp;and&nbsp;periods.&nbsp;Irrigation&nbsp;choice&nbsp;significantly&nbsp;affected&nbsp;net&nbsp;irrigation&nbsp;requirements&nbsp;(NIR),&nbsp;which&nbsp;increased&nbsp;by&nbsp;5–27%&nbsp;under&nbsp;RCP4.5&nbsp;and&nbsp;10–33%&nbsp;under&nbsp;RCP8.5.&nbsp;Crop&nbsp;evapotranspiration&nbsp;(ETc)&nbsp;rose&nbsp;by&nbsp;6–15%&nbsp;under&nbsp;RCP4.5&nbsp;and&nbsp;12–20%&nbsp;under&nbsp;RCP8.5,&nbsp;while&nbsp;water&nbsp;productivity&nbsp;(WP)&nbsp;improved&nbsp;across&nbsp;all&nbsp;irrigation&nbsp;methods.&nbsp;WP&nbsp;gains&nbsp;ranged&nbsp;from&nbsp;8&nbsp;to&nbsp;22%&nbsp;under&nbsp;RCP4.5&nbsp;and&nbsp;12–28%&nbsp;under&nbsp;RCP8.5,&nbsp;with&nbsp;subsurface&nbsp;drip&nbsp;irrigation&nbsp;achieving&nbsp;the&nbsp;highest&nbsp;efficiency.&nbsp;Overall,&nbsp;although&nbsp;climate&nbsp;change&nbsp;will&nbsp;elevate&nbsp;soybean&nbsp;water&nbsp;demand,&nbsp;enhanced&nbsp;CO₂&nbsp;concentrations&nbsp;may&nbsp;improve&nbsp;WP,&nbsp;partially&nbsp;offsetting&nbsp;these&nbsp;impacts.&nbsp;Subsurface&nbsp;drip&nbsp;irrigation&nbsp;appears&nbsp;to&nbsp;be&nbsp;the&nbsp;most&nbsp;effective&nbsp;adaptation&nbsp;strategy&nbsp;for&nbsp;maintaining&nbsp;high&nbsp;yields&nbsp;and&nbsp;optimizing&nbsp;water&nbsp;use&nbsp;under&nbsp;future&nbsp;climatic&nbsp;conditions.</span></p>

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