Stochastic modeling of Lake Van water level time series with jumps and multiple trends
Diğer yayınlar > Diğer · 2013
Yazarlar: H. Aksoy, N. E. Unal, Ebru ERİŞ, M. I. Yuce
Diğer, Uluslararası, 2013,
Özet
Abstract. In 1990s, water level in the closed-basin Lake Van located in the Eastern Anatolia, Turkey has risen up about 2 m. Analysis of the hydrometeorological shows that change in the water level is related to the water budget of the lake. In this study, a stochastic model is generated using the measured monthly water level data of the lake. The model is derived after removal of trend and periodicity in the data set. Trend observed in the lake water level time series is fitted by mono- and multiple-trend lines. For the multiple-trend, the time series is first divided into homogeneous segments by means of SEGMENTER, segmentation software. Four segments are found meaningful practically each fitted with a trend line. Two models considering mono- and multiple-trend time series are developed. The multiple-trend model is found better for planning future development in surrounding areas of the lake.