Finansal Krizlerin Belirleyenleri ve Öngörülebilirliği: Türkiye Üzerine Bir Uygulama
Makaleler > Tam Makale · 2013
Yazarlar: Muhammet Ali AVCI, N.Oğuzhan ALTAY
Ege Akademik Bakis (Ege Academic Review), Uluslararası, 2013, cilt 13, ss 113-113
Özet
The aim of this study is to analyze the predictability of financial crises and to determine the leading indicators of these crises in the period of 1990:01-2009:07 for Turkey by using Regression Trees and Markov Regime Switching models. According to the results, in Regression Trees model for predicting financial crises the most significant indicators are; money market pressure index, rate of industrial production to domestic credit, M2/Reserves, inflation, on the other hand in Markov Regime Switching model these indicators are terms of trade, balance of trade, inflation and M2/Reserves. In this context, while the financial crises experienced in Turkey in 1994 and 2001 are successfully predicted, 2008 global financial crisis could not be predicted