Impact of major tropical volcanic eruptions on air temperatures in the Middle East
Makaleler > Tam Makale · 2025
Yazarlar: Gholamreza Roshan, Abdolazim Ghanghermeh, Stefan W. Grab, Ecmel ERLAT, Murat Türkeş
Earth Science Informatics, SCI Expanded İndekslerine Giren Dergi, Uluslararası, Wos, 2025, cilt 18, ss 466-488
DOI: 10.1007/s12145-025-01954-2
Özet
<p>Although there has been extensive scientific work on the impacts of major volcanic eruptions on global and regional climates,</p><p>the Middle East remains a knowledge gap in this regard. Our aim is to establish surface air temperature responses</p><p>across the Middle East and easternmost Mediterranean basin, following three major tropical volcanic eruptions: Krakatau</p><p>(1883), Agung (1963) and Pinatubo (1991). This study utilizes available data from CMIP6 climate models to analyze</p><p>climatic responses to these eruptions. The longest-lasting cool anomalies, persisting for six years, followed the Krakatau</p><p>eruption. The most pronounced post-Krakatau cooling occurred in 1884, with a regionally averaged temperature departure</p><p>of -0.74 °C, relative to a mean baseline temperature. In contrast, the Agung eruption caused a regionally averaged</p><p>temperature departure of -0.59 °C in 1964, but its cooling effect was more temporally limited, lasting approximately 3½</p><p>years. Air temperatures over the Middle East were depressed for over a decade following the Pinatubo eruption, but this</p><p>may have been due to additional unidentified climatic factors. This extended cool period was marked by the strongest</p><p>regionally averaged post-volcanic temperature departure of -0.76 °C, recorded in 1992. Our findings highlight that the</p><p>extent of such cooling varied across the Middle East, with the most pronounced cooling occurring at higher elevations</p><p>and latitudes, while southern regions (especially the Arabian Peninsula) experienced more moderate cooling. This study</p><p>underscores that a combination of factors, including regional climate dynamics, have likely played a significant role in</p><p>determining the intensity and duration of cooling associated with major volcanic eruptions, in the Middle East.</p>