Budyko Curve Conformance Unravelling Hydrological Change in a Semi-Arid Mediterranean-Climate River Basin
Makaleler > Tam Makale · 2026
Yazarlar: Yonca Cavus, Dilek Eren Akyuz, Ebru ERİŞ, Hafzullah Aksoy
HYDROLOGICAL PROCESSES, SCI İndekslerine Giren Dergi, Uluslararası, Wos, 2026, cilt 40, ss 1-1
DOI: 10.1002/hyp.70657
Özet
This study investigates long-term streamflow changes in the Gediz River Basin, a climatically Mediterranean catchment in western Turkey, by employing a Budyko-based water balance framework. Using multi-decadal observations from 18 streamflow gauging stations and four meteorological stations, we analyse basin behaviour through (i) Budyko and Fu curves fitting, (ii) detection of regime shifts using time-series segmentation and (iii) attribution of streamflow changes via both decomposition and sensitivity methods. A common hydrological regime shift was detected in 1984, after which streamflow consistently declines across most streamflow gauges. Post-change periods exhibit elevated Fu parameters and increased evaporation ratios, indicating reduced runoff and intensified aridity. A high majority of gauging stations align closely with Budyko expectations, while deviations-particularly in high-altitude headwaters-are attributed to karst geomorphology, snowmelt processes and data limitations. Attribution analysis reveals that climate variability, especially declining precipitation, accounts for 50%-75% of the total streamflow change, though local anthropogenic drivers also contribute significantly in specific sub-basins. These findings mirror regional hydroclimatic patterns across the Mediterranean Basin and reinforce the Gediz River Basin's sensitivity to both climate stress and water management practices. The well-established knowledge that humans are the main factor creating the streamflow decrease has been softened with our data-limited results showing that the climate-driven change in Western part of Turkey could be higher than the human effect. The study is a detailed basin-scale understanding, rather than implying a methodological breakthrough or a definitive proof of persistent Budyko conformance. It emphasises that the hydrological character of Gediz River Basin provides an opportunity to develop Budyko-based practical methodologies for the river basin-scale water resources planning and management strategies that could potentially be transferable to data-scarce, semi-arid regions facing escalating water insecurity.