Impact of Climatic Variations on the Global Distribution and Prevalence of Mpox Disease: Analysis of Data from 52 Countries Using Linear Regression and Time-Series Forecasting Analyses
Makaleler > Tam Makale · 2025
Yazarlar: Iyanuloluwa S. Ojo, Olurotimi John Badero, Muhammad Aziz Rahman, Nicholas Aderinto, Onur ORAL, Rishad Choudhury Robin, Emmanuel Jesuyon Dansu, Faridat Ibidun, Temitope Ogunjimi
Outbreak Management and Response, Uluslararası, 2025, cilt 1
DOI: 10.1080/29947677.2025.2499433
Özet
MPOX infection has emerged as a significant global public health concern, with marked epidemiological variations across countries. In this study, we employed a quantitative, cross-sectional approach to examine the impact of climatic variations on MPOX prevalence and mortality. We analysed daily confirmed MPOX cases from 52 countries using both linear regression and time-series forecasting methods (Prophet and SARIMAX models), focusing on average mean surface air temperature (AMSAT), precipitation, and climate types based on the Köppen classification. Globally, no statistically significant relationships were observed between temperature or precipitation and MPOX prevalence (p = 0.99 and p = 0.82, respectively), nor were significant associations noted for mortality (p = 0.45 and p = 0.54, respectively). However, region-specific analyses revealed that temperature had a more substantial impact on MPOX prevalence in Europe (p = 0.049) and South America (p = 0.0036), while precipitation was significantly associated with MPOX prevalence in South America (p = 0.044). Notably, tropical and temperate climate types were most strongly associated with increased MPOX transmission. The Prophet model, which accounts for seasonality, demonstrated fluctuating influences of temperature and precipitation on MPOX prevalence, with their effects diminishing over time. Specifically, higher temperatures were associated with increased MPOX prevalence, while precipitation exhibited a two-legged influence on the disease. Similarly, the SARIMAX model indicated a potential, relatively less impactful resurgence of MPOX in 2030; although higher temperatures were again associated with increased prevalence, this association did not reach statistical significance (p = 0.561). Additionally, precipitation levels between 500 mm and 1500 mm were associated with a slight rise in MPOX prevalence (p = 0.113), possibly explaining the higher prevalence observed in countries within this precipitation range. These findings underscore the importance of monitoring climatic factors—especially in the most affected regions—to better understand and mitigate the spread and mortality associated with MPOX.