Spatial analysis of sovereign risks: The case of emerging markets
Articles > Article · 2018
Authors: Gül Şerife HUYUGÜZEL KIŞLA, Asiye Özlem ÖNDER
FINANCE RESEARCH LETTERS, Journal Indexed in SCI Expanded, International, 2018, vol 26, pp 47-55
DOI: 10.1016/j.frl.2017.12.004
Summary
This paper examines the macroeconomic determinants of the sovereign risks for emerging markets by taking spatial linkages into consideration. We employ spatial panel models for 20 emerging markets for this purpose. Using quarterly data for the period 2004-2015, our results show that there is a strong spatial linkage between the emerging markets. The most important linkage is found to be the trade channel for the sovereign credit default swaps (CDS) spreads. Financial linkages are also important channels in transmitting the sovereign risk. Inflation rate and growth rates are found to be two important indicators of sovereign risk together with other macroeconomic variables. Our results reveal further indirect effects of macroeconomic variables for these countries.